Monday 28 October 2019

What's with the game plan of Temasek taking over Keppel?

Ever since the announcement of Temasek Holding's bid to increase stakes in Keppel Corporation. There has been numerous comments from among my friends. While those holding some shares in Keppel Corporation are happy with the offer price of $7.35 which most likely they would accept the offer to obtain some profits. Others, the more negative ones tend to look on the bad side of it, even to the point of thinking the Government using tax payer money to save their companies. Well...



Temasek Holdings is a state-owned enterprise that manage a portfolio of investments in several different sectors.  Just earlier this year, Temasek together with SPH took over M1 Telecommunication, one of the 3 main telecommunication companies in Singapore.  Subsequently M1 was de-listed from SGX. It has been one of my main holdings for many years, and I was kind of sad to let it go. Now they are moving into taking over Keppel. All these moves within a year signal a move toward a game plan of consolidation. But why need for this move?

To understand it further, we need to look into our history. Singapore is a small nation with no natural resources, and our first PM Lee Kuan Yew knew it well that for Singapore to survive, Singapore must venture beyond the border and create itself its own identity and a branding to the world. The investors must be attracted to Singapore to create industry and jobs. Looking through the history, we had done well. Singtel, SPH, Keppel, Sembcorp etc all these are well-known to all Singaporean and a signature brand of Singapore in the Global world. But that was in the past.

Time is changing, companies must evolved with time to stay competitive. And looking at our government afflicted companies, they are certainly not doing so well as before. Keppel and Sembcorp may be known to the world as Singapore brand but they are peanuts compare to the Global giant of Google and Amazon, and even Alibaba which was well supported by China's own massive domestic market of 1.4 billion population. Where do Singapore stands now among these giants? China is already into the 5G network, are ours Singtel ready for it? Gone are the days of paper news, in this age of social media, how will SPH revamp itself to stay competitive? 

In this fast changing age, there is a need for a move to stay competitive. Temasek moves to assume control of companies is just a beginning, more re-structure will come and the new management will need to look beyond the border into the Global world to re-position Singapore. One thing is for sure, it will not be an overnight affairs, new policies will need time to carry out and the results of it whether successful or not will take years to bear fruits. This is the fate of a small nation with no natural resources, either we evolve or we gets left behind.    

Friday 25 October 2019

The game is on for Ascott Reit and A-HTrust


The market has been rather quiet for the past few months. Two things however happened in this week. First is the announcement of Temasek Holdings bid to increase shareholdings in Keppel Corporation. Second is the green light given by the unit-holders to merge Ascendas Hospitality Trust (A-HTrust) with Ascott Reit.
 
Temasek Holdings is bidding to increase their stakes in Keppel Corporation through a proposed offer price at $7.35. 


It was quite an unexpected price since Keppel Corporation price has been hovering around $6 for a long time.  I used to have some holdings in Keppel Corporation, mostly bought during the oil crisis in year 2016 below $5. I sold all of it between year 2017-2018. My main concern is the volatility of the oil and gas industry, which was difficult to benchmark as my focus is more on sustainability for long term. 

The merging of A-HTrust with Ascott Reit is a big event, this would make them into Asia-Pacific largest Hospitality Reit. 

 Business Times News
  
So how does it impact the existing unit-holders? For existing Ascott unit-holders, it would mean an expanded portfolio with stronger cash holdings after the merge, the best part about it is A-HTrust has many Freehold assets under its portfolio. Unlike those properties with limited number of years on lease basis, Freehold properties offer more value and stability. For A-HTrust unit-holders, apart from an expanded portfolio, A-HTrust shares will be converted into Ascott shares. The conversion rate and allocation are as follow:



What it means is for every 1000 A-HTrust shares, we will get $54.30 cash and 794 new Ascott shares. 

I have holdings in both Ascendas and Ascott. This merger will one shot turn my Ascott holdings into the largest allocation in my portfolio, at the same time I will be getting some cash returns from my A-HTrust holdings as well. Based on the number of total holdings I have, overall allocation in portfolio after the merge will likely exceed 10% which is more than my own standard % benchmark in diversity. This might call for a re-balancing of my portfolio. The stock prices of both Ascott and A-HTrust has since soar after the announcement, this clearly show how positive the market react was to it. Until then, we shall see.